I think we need to create a PUBLIC list of who definitely supports us (MPs, but also other Labor notables) and who doesn’t.
PLEASE SEND INFO VIA THE COMMENT FUNCTION ON OTHER LABOR FIGURES WHO HAVE TOLD YOU THEY WILL SUPPORT EQUALITY

In a much smaller way I tried to do the calculations for the Cabinet already … before the election … now it is time for an update and to expand it to all MPs and Senators. For the new Cabinet the figures are: 8 yes, 5 swinging, 7 no.

The real power-base for equality supporters, however, lies just outside the Cabinet in the general Ministry and amongst the factional power-brokers and leading state figures. Here there is virtually no charismatic or credible opposition, but there is an increasing list of supporters.

Who else can you name?  I’ve got:

Party bodies

The Victorian, Tasmanian and ACT branches of the ALP.
Rainbow Labor
NSW and Tasmania Young Labor
There is a growing list of unions too (every the Firefighters!)

Individuals (Federal)
Nicola Roxon MP (Minister for Health, VIC), Senator Mark Arbib (NSW), Tanya Plibersek MP (NSW), Senator Doug Cameron (NSW), Andrew Leigh MP (ACT), Senator Louise Pratt (WA), Senator Trish Crossin (NT), Sharon Grierson MP (NSW), Stephen Jones MP (NSW), Kirsten Livermore MP (NSW), Deb O’Neill MP (NSW)

Individuals (State level / party office holder)
Premier Anna Bligh (National ALP President, QLD), Premier Kristina Keneally (NSW),  Premier David Bartlett (TAS), Paul Howes, Cath Bowtell, Andrew Barr MLA (ACT) and John Stanhope MLA (ACT) (who actually got marriage passed but had their law overturned in 2006),  Penny Sharpe MLC (NSW), Minister Bronwyn Pike (Victoria), Ian Hunter MLC (SA), Rachael Nolan (QLD)

UPDATED COMMENTARY ON HOW THE CABINET WOULD FALL …

Julia Gillard, Prime Minister – no, unless party conference tells her otherwise

Political fear is the only thing holding the PM back. No-one seriously believes that a woman of the Labor left living a non-traditional family and who does not believe in God, actually supports inequality. Her own state branch (Victoria) backs equality and she grew up in Don Dunstan’s liberal-era Adelaide. She has gay friends and advisers and even Cabinet members. Give her solid proof that the population backs equality and she would give her full backing too.

Wayne Swan, Deputy Prime Minister – probable no

His only public comment on the issue is: “We’ve made it very clear that we’re not supporting gay marriage,” from 2004. From a reasonably conservative electorate and the right-wing of the party.

Chris Evans – probable yes

From the left wing of the party in a state that has full equality and a good record in putting forward gay and lesbian candidates.

Penny Wong – definite yes.

Would defy all credibility for her to vote no if it came to a vote in Parliament. Lesbian; left-wing; no direct constituents to deliver a backlash; long-time supporter of Rainbow Labor. It’s weak that Wong won’t take a personal stand now – she of all people is the one who wouldn’t be sacked for doing so. But past silence would convert into golden moral weight the second she decides to out her support.

Kevin Rudd – probable no

Signed away 58 pieces of discrimination in 2008 to widespread pink applause, but a Christian and a conservative on most things.  If we was willing to sell out on an emissions trading scheme as PM, then he’d definitely sell out on marriage equality too.  The way to get to him is via his daughter Jessica, and wife Therese.

Stephen Smith, possible yes.

I had him down as a probable no, but got mail from people in Western Australia telling I’d been too dismissive. Back into the ‘possible’ column.

Nicola Roxon, yes

Personally sympathetic to gay rights and sometimes willing to publicly back her conviction, but also known to have been cowed into line with her faction and the Christian Right. Her legal background would mean that judicial support or jurisprudence in favour of equality would be a convincing argument for her.

Jenny Macklin, definite yes.

Very left wing in social issues, from Victoria whose ALP branch supports equality.

Simon Crean, possible yes

Nothing in his centrist background and suburban electorate suggests he is a sure supporter. But as Minister for Social Inclusion he would be making a mockery of his portfolio if he starting dictating a shortlist of who is allowed to be fully included in our society and who is not. For these reasons he should be a major target of gay activists. As a former leader he still commands wide respect in the party, and with his trade union background has a natural affinity with the underdog.

Anthony Albanese – definite yes

Gay rights’ best friend in the Cabinet. Left-wing factional leader who pushed the party to vote on the issue of gay marriage at its 2009 conference, where proposals were narrowly defeated. Will lead the charge in rounding up as many left wing and right wing votes as he can.

Stephen Conroy, probable no

Long associated with the more conservative parts of the right wing of the Labor Party, Conroy is probably personally open to persuasion on the issue, but for political expediency will not be seen backing a pro-gay marriage line.

Kim Carr, definite yes

Hard left factional warrior, who aligns with every traditionally left-wing and progressive cause. Can be guaranteed to back it just prove he is more left wing than Julia Gillard.

Peter Garrett, definite yes

Garrett is on the public record as supporting gay marriage, and reconciles this view easily with his Christian beliefs, because he has a strong belief in strong families and has gay family members that he remains close to.

Robert McClelland, probable no

This is the most disappointing prediction of all – born out of McClelland’s ridiculous enforcement of the previous Howard Government’s Commonwealth hijacking of marriage from the states (because of the ACT’s approval of gay marriage that was then over-turned by the Commonwealth arbitrarily). As the man who oversaw the 58 positive changes in legislation to give us near full equality in 2008, you’d think he could go the last mile. I doubt it.

Joe Ludwig, possible yes

The only MP who’s ever surprised me with his thorough knowledge of transgender issue. The only MP who’s gate-crashed a lobbying effort of Rainbow Labor’s to enthuse about what he can do. Despite his conservative factional background, I think he’s open to good arguments and the idea of a fair go.

Tony Burke, swinger

Tony Burke is another person who would consider the idea but probably struggle to put his hand in the air to support equality. He would need the ALP national executive to signal a conscience vote and with local lobbying from his constituents could be pushed across the line. Personally sympathetic to gay rights buy wary of backlash from other parts of the party and his ethically and religiously diverse electorate.

Martin Ferguson, possible yes.

Martin could cop out along Julia Gillard lines, but has indicated he could change his mind if party processes of debate are properly followed.

Chris Bowen, probable no

Conservative in both social and economic approaches. But, he’s young, he’s got friends in the gay rights movement, and would consider the implications for his career ladder climb.

Greg Combet – probable yes

Even if he wasn’t personally favourable – and he probably thinks there are a many greater problems in Australia than a bunch of whining gays – he generally ethos of fairness and fighting for the underdog and defining Labor’s vision clearly, plus all the left-wing factional pressures he would face, means he is a probable yes.

Craig Emerson – definite no

Julia Gillard’s ex and generally a greasy pole climber. Consistently on record as using the “man and woman” line.

OTHER KEY FIGURES

Senator Mark Arbib – definite yes

Right-wing powerbroker. Spectacularly came out in support of equality in November 2010 – a long way from the chilly reception he gave me when I founded Rainbow Labor back in 2002.

Senator Doug Cameron – definite yes

Old school Left-wing powerproker.  Shows that those with a suburban and working class base can just as easily support equality as the liberal inner city crowd.

Premier Anna Bligh – ALP president – supports equalty

Premier Kristina Keneally – NSW Premier – supports equality

Conservative Catholic who nevertheless supports all relationships being in stable, legal, loving frameworks … like marriage.

Australian Workers Union Secretary Paul Howes – supports equality

Leads the new generation of powerful unionists. Votes with his generation.

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